Canada Election 2024: Liberals Retain Power Amid Trump Tensions; Poilievre, NDP Face Setbacks

Ottawa, Canada – Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party clinched a historic fourth term in Canada’s snap federal election on Monday, defying polls and overcoming fierce Conservative opposition fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs and annexation. The vote, dominated by economic anxieties and geopolitical tensions, reshaped Canada’s political landscape with surprise losses and a dramatic collapse of the New Democratic Party (NDP).

Key Winners

1. Mark Carney & the Liberals:
   • Victory Against Odds: The Liberals surged from a 25-point deficit to secure enough seats (projected 172+) in the 343-member House of Commons, forming a minority government. Carney’s pledge to counter Trump’s 25% tariffs and protect workers resonated with swing voters.
   • Trump as Catalyst: Analysts credit Trump’s rhetoric (“Canada as the 51st state”) and Carney’s economic credentials (ex-Bank of Canada/England governor) for swaying undecided voters. “Canadians wanted an adult in the room,” said public affairs analyst Bob Richardson.
2. Bloc Québécois & Greens:
   • The Bloc held steady with 32 seats, while the Greens doubled their 2021 tally to 4 seats, capitalizing on environmental concerns.

Key Losers

1. Pierre Poilievre & Conservatives:
   • Riding Loss: Poilievre lost his Carleton, Ontario seat to Liberal Bruce Fanjoy after 20 years, despite Conservatives gaining 20+ seats (highest vote share since 1988).
   • Trump-Style Backlash: Poilievre’s Trump-like rhetoric alienated moderates. “His tactics mirrored Trump’s, which scared voters,” said pollster Philippe J Fournier.
2. Jagmeet Singh & the NDP:
   • Historic Collapse: The NDP plummeted from 25 seats to 7, losing official party status. Singh conceded defeat in Burnaby Central and resigned as leader.
   • Liberal Absorption: NDP votes shifted to Liberals amid fears of Conservative extremism and Trump’s threats.

Surprises & Analysis

• Shy Conservative Vote: Conservatives gained significant support (highest since 1998) but fell short of a majority, reflecting polarization over Trump and affordability crises.
• NDP Meltdown: “The NDP’s collapse powered Liberal gains,” noted McGill professor Tari Ajadi. The party’s progressive base fractured over strategic voting.
• Trump’s Shadow: 60% of voters cited Trump’s tariffs/annexation threats as decisive. Carney’s promise of “counter-tariffs” and housing reforms galvanized urban centers.

What’s Next?

• Minority Governance: Carney must collaborate with the Bloc or Greens to pass legislation. A Liberal-NDP pact is unlikely after Singh’s resignation.
• Trump Showdown: Carney vowed to confront Trump’s trade policies, declaring, “We decide what happens here.” Talks for a revised NAFTA-style deal are expected.
• Housing Focus: Carney’s pledge to build “millions of units” and address 2.3% inflation (down from 8.1% in 2022) will dominate his agenda.

Reactions

• Carney: “We built this nation despite a hostile neighbor. We will be an energy superpower.”
• Poilievre: Congratulated Carney but pledged to defend sovereignty: “Conservatives will push for a fair trade deal.”

Rating: High stakes, historic shift – Canada’s election underscores global populism’s limits and the weight of U.S. relations in national politics.