Washington, DC: Hours after the United States and Israel launched their sweeping bombing campaign against Iran on Saturday, President Donald Trump framed the operation in lofty terms, telling the Iranian people that their “moment of freedom” is at hand.
“When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take,” Trump declared, suggesting that US-Israeli air power would pave the way for the collapse of the Islamic Republic.
But as the conflict enters its fourth day, analysts are increasingly questioning whether regime change can be achieved without “boots on the ground” —a line Trump has repeatedly vowed not to cross.
The Limits of Air Power
Kelly Grieco, senior fellow at the Stimson Center think tank, told Al Jazeera that achieving such a sweeping political shift will be difficult—if not impossible—without a ground invasion.
“It seems like they’re not willing to pay certain costs to achieve regime change, so there’s sort of a set of secondary goals that perhaps will be enough if they can’t achieve that through air power alone,” Grieco said.
Matthew Duss, executive vice president at the Center for International Policy, echoed that skepticism, emphasizing that history offers few examples of air campaigns toppling governments.
“You can damage buildings; you can damage the regime, but we don’t have examples of when air power alone has achieved regime change,” Duss said.
The Libya Precedent
The one recent example often cited—the 2011 NATO-led air campaign in Libya—actually underscores the analysts’ point. While Western air power devastated Muammar Gaddafi’s military, it was Libyan rebel forces on the ground who ultimately captured and killed the dictator.
In Iran’s case, no such organized, armed opposition exists inside the country. While Trump and other US officials have repeatedly called on Iranians to rise up, there is no visible force capable of marching on Tehran.
What’s the Fallback?
If regime change proves unattainable from the skies, the US may pivot to what Grieco calls “secondary goals”: degrading Iran’s ballistic missile program, destroying its nuclear infrastructure, and weakening the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Pentagon officials have already announced the destruction of IRGC command hubs, air defenses, and missile launch sites. But whether that translates into political change remains an open question.
The Iranian Response
Meanwhile, Tehran has shown no signs of capitulation. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the initial strikes, but Iran’s leadership has moved quickly to establish an interim governing council. Retaliatory missile and drone attacks continue across the Gulf, targeting US allies and infrastructure.
As the war grinds on, the gap between Trump’s maximalist rhetoric and the practical limits of air power grows increasingly apparent.
