Oil Prices Rebound as OPEC+ Sticks to Modest Output Hike for July
May 31, 2025 — Global oil prices rebounded sharply on Monday after OPEC+ announced it would stick to its current output increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) for July, matching hikes seen in May and June. The decision alleviated fears of a larger supply surge, prompting a more than $1 per barrel increase in crude prices.
Brent crude futures jumped $1.34, or 2.13%, to $64.12 a barrel by 03:46 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose $1.52, or 2.5%, to $62.31 a barrel. Both benchmarks had slipped last week on speculation of a possible larger supply boost.
Analysts noted that OPEC+’s move was already priced into the market, but confirmation brought short-term bullish momentum.
“Had they gone through with a surprise larger amount, then Monday’s price open would have been pretty ugly indeed,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, analyst at Onyx Capital Group.
The decision comes amid OPEC+ efforts to discipline over-producers like Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have consistently breached agreed quotas.
According to Russia’s Interfax, citing Kazakhstan’s deputy energy minister, Kazakhstan has informed OPEC that it will not cut its oil production, raising further concerns over quota compliance.
Analysts from Goldman Sachs anticipate another 0.41 million bpd increase in August but noted strong demand signals could support the market.
“Tight spot oil fundamentals, strong economic activity data, and seasonal summer support suggest demand will remain resilient,” the bank said in a recent note.
In the U.S., low fuel inventories and the start of the driving season have heightened supply worries, especially with an above-average hurricane season forecasted.
“A massive 1 million bpd surge in gasoline implied demand was one of the largest in recent years,” noted ANZ analysts, marking the third-highest weekly increase in three years.
Despite record production in March at 13.49 million bpd, U.S. oil rigs fell for a fifth consecutive week, down by four to 461, the lowest since November 2021, according to Baker Hughes.
This decline raises concerns about sustained U.S. output growth amid volatile pricing and rising operational costs.
With OPEC+ walking a tightrope between market share and price stability, and non-compliant members like Kazakhstan challenging the group’s cohesion, the global oil market remains finely balanced. Traders now eye the July 6 meeting for signs of direction on August output levels.
