Analysis: The perils of ‘Sudanizing’ Yemen
RIYADH: In a region already teetering on the edge, Yemen’s rapidly evolving situation on the ground is raising alarm bells. While international observers continue to place their bets on diplomacy and de-escalation, there is growing concern that the country may be inching toward a dangerous regional conflagration. At the heart of this anxiety lies the Yemeni government’s and the Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen’s unwavering commitment to preserving territorial unity and preventing the rise of extremist safe havens that could destabilize not just Yemen, but the broader region and beyond.
It would be naive to view developments in southern Yemen in isolation. The parallels with Sudan — where the Rapid Support Forces have left a trail of devastation and a massacre in places like El Fasher — and with the recent Israeli recognition of Somaliland, are too stark to ignore. These cases serve as cautionary tales of what could unfold in Yemen if the Southern Transitional Council were allowed to unilaterally impose a new reality through force and foreign alliances.
Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry has struck a delicate but firm tone, drawing a clear red line when it comes to its own national security but acknowledging the just and historically rooted nature of the southern issue. Yet, it has also made clear that any resolution must emerge from consensus among Yemen’s diverse components — around the negotiating table, not on the battlefield. A military solution would only unravel years of painstaking efforts by the coalition and the internationally recognized Yemeni government to foster calm, even engaging with the Houthis in pursuit of a durable peace.
A Yemeni analyst familiar with the inner workings of the legitimate government noted that while southerners have a right to advocate for independence based on their historical and geographic claims, this cannot come at the expense of other Yemenis who believe in, and have arguments for, a united nation. Their voices, too, deserve to be heard.
“Historically, Yemen has been a unified and federated entity, from the Qasimid and Himyarite dynasties to the Rasulid state. The division of Yemen was not indigenous but imposed by colonial powers — most notably the British in the south, who ruled through a patchwork of emirates and sultanates, while the Ottomans held sway in the north. Even the city of Dhale was once under the rule of the imams. This artificial division persisted until 1990, when Yemen was reunited into its natural state,” he told Arab News.
