Tehran – One week after the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in US-Israeli strikes, Iran’s clerical establishment is reportedly close to naming the Islamic Republic’s next supreme leader—a decision that will shape the country’s future amid an existential war.
Iran’s revolutionary theocracy has never been in greater jeopardy. With Israel and the United States vowing to kill whoever replaces Khamenei—and even those involved in selecting the new leader—the process is unfolding under unprecedented pressure.
Here’s how power is meant to operate in the Islamic Republic, how a new leader can be chosen, the main candidates, and how the war has changed everything.
What Is Iran’s ‘Supreme Leader’?
Iran’s theocratic system dates to the 1979 revolution that ousted the Shah. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the revolution’s leader, introduced vilayat-e faqih—guardianship of the Islamic jurist.
The theory holds that until the return of the Shi’ite Muslim 12th Imam (who went into occultation in the ninth century), power on earth should be wielded by a venerable cleric.
Under Khomeini (died 1989) and Khamenei, the supreme leader has had the last say in all matters of state, guiding the elected president and parliament. Any new leader will have to assert this authority at a moment of enormous rupture.
Who Chooses the Successor?
The constitution requires a new leader within three months. Until then, a temporary leadership council comprising:
- President Masoud Pezeshkian
- Guardians Council member Ayatollah Alireza Arafi
- Judiciary chief Ayatollah Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei
The formal choice rests with the Assembly of Experts, a body of around 90 senior clerics elected every eight years. With strikes continuing, consultations are being conducted online, Iranian officials told Reuters, and an announcement could come as early as Sunday.
In practice, the decision likely rests with the most senior powerbrokers who wielded influence under Khamenei. Among them: veteran adviser Ali Larijani, often seen as Iran’s foremost powerbroker. The Revolutionary Guards will also have a critical backroom voice.
The Main Candidates
1. Mojtaba Khamenei
Khamenei’s son is widely seen as the most likely candidate after surviving the first wave of strikes (which killed his wife). Although hereditary succession is officially frowned upon, he has a powerful following within the Guards and his father’s still-influential office.
2. Hassan Khomeini
The grandson of the revolution’s founder is associated with the reformist faction, which has tried to moderate the Islamic Republic’s stance. He might be seen as better able to assuage Western enmity and calm public fury.
3. Ayatollah Alireza Arafi
A member of the interim leadership council, a less prominent figure who would likely continue Khamenei’s hardline stance.
4. Ayatollah Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei
Also on the interim council, he was intelligence minister during the 2009 post-election crackdown and is known for uncompromising positions.
5. Ahmad Alamolhoda & Mohsen Araki
Senior clerics with close involvement in Iranian politics who might be considered.
Former president Hassan Rouhani is a senior cleric but was distrusted by hardliners. Theoretically, the assembly could pick a lesser-known ayatollah, but the fractured system would make it harder to buttress a newcomer.
The Revolutionary Guards’ Role
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) had long been expected to play a central role in determining Khamenei’s successor. Unlike the regular military, the Guards answer only to the supreme leader.
But its top echelons have been hollowed out by US and Israeli strikes over recent years:
- Qassem Soleimani (Quds Force commander) assassinated by US strike in 2020.
- Top commanders killed in last summer’s brief war with Israel.
- Latest strikes killed IRGC chief Mohammed Pakpour, three sources confirmed.
The Basij, a paramilitary force under Guards’ control, is often used to quell internal protests. The Guards’ economic empire—through contracting company Khatam al-Anbiya—also gives them a stake in protecting their interests.
Do the People Get a Say?
Iranians elect a president and parliament, but all candidates must be vetted by the clerical Guardians Council. During the early years of the revolution, elections drew mass participation; far fewer Iranians now retain faith in the process.
President Masoud Pezeshkian, a reputed moderate on the interim leadership committee, was forced into an embarrassing climbdown on Saturday over the conduct of the war—suggesting he has little real say.
The Assembly of Experts is elected, but with all candidates pre-vetted, only those already aligned with the authorities can participate.
The Unpredictable Future
With the clerical body ready to announce a decision, and with US and Israeli leaders vowing to target both the new leader and those who chose him, the succession process is unfolding in uncharted territory. The outcome will determine not just who leads Iran, but whether the theocratic system itself can survive.
