STORRS, Conn. — The UConn Huskies have done the improbable. One year after losing Paige Bueckers—the face of women’s college basketball—to the WNBA, Geno Auriemma’s squad hasn’t just reloaded; they’ve reached new heights.
At 34-0, UConn enters the 2026 NCAA tournament as the only undefeated team in the nation. Their dominance has been staggering: a 90-51 demolition of Villanova in the Big East championship game, a 100-51 semifinal rout of Creighton, and an average margin of victory of 20 points across five matchups with ranked opponents.
Only two teams have come within single digits of the Huskies all season. Michigan fell 72-69 on Nov. 21, and Villanova lost by 14 on Feb. 18. Every other opponent has been swept aside.
But history suggests that perfection in conference play doesn’t guarantee a national championship. The Huskies’ biggest vulnerability lies not in their roster but in their schedule. The Big East offered no ranked opponents, leaving UConn untested in tight, high-pressure situations. How will they respond when a battle-tested team pushes them to the limit in the tournament’s later rounds?
A handful of teams believe they have the answer. Here are four programs with the best chance to hand UConn its only loss of the season and cut down the nets in Cleveland.
1. UCLA Bruins (34-1)
If any team can go toe-to-toe with UConn, it’s UCLA. In any other season, the Bruins would be the undisputed No. 1 team in the country.
Their resume is staggering: a 34-1 record, the nation’s top offensive efficiency rating (No. 1 in the country), and a 19-1 mark against Quad 1 opponents. Their lone loss came against Texas on Nov. 26. Since then, they’ve won 25 straight games against a brutal Big Ten schedule that featured 13 ranked opponents—more than double the number UConn faced.
The Bruins’ resume-defining moment came in the Big Ten championship game, where they demolished No. 9 Iowa, 96-45. Even Auriemma acknowledged afterward that UCLA had a strong case for the No. 1 overall seed.
Led by Big Ten Player of the Year and reigning All-American Lauren Betts, alongside fellow first-team All-Big Ten selection Kiki Rice, UCLA has the star power and depth to match UConn. Their defensive rating (24th nationally) lags behind UConn’s top-ranked unit, but their strength of schedule suggests those numbers are deceiving.
The case for UCLA: They’ve played—and beaten—more elite competition than anyone.
2. Texas Longhorns (31-3)
The rest of UConn’s top challengers emerge from the SEC, and Texas leads the charge.
The Longhorns handed UCLA its only loss of the season back in November and enter the tournament on an eight-game winning streak that includes five victories over ranked opponents. Their most impressive statement came in the SEC championship game, where they dismantled No. 3 South Carolina, 78-61.
Texas is elite on both ends of the floor, ranking fifth nationally in offensive rating and third in defensive rating. They’ve compiled a 14-3 record against Quad 1 competition while navigating the nation’s toughest conference. Only UCLA has more Quad 1 wins.
All-SEC selections Madison Booker and Rori Harmon provide the star power, but it’s the Longhorns’ balance and late-season surge that make them dangerous.
The case for Texas: They’ve already beaten two of the teams ahead of them (UCLA and South Carolina) and are peaking at the perfect time.
3. South Carolina Gamecocks (31-3)
Dawn Staley’s program has taken a slight step back from its 2022 and 2024 championship heights—but “slight step back” for South Carolina still means a 31-3 record, an SEC regular-season title, and a No. 3 NET ranking.
The Gamecocks looked like the class of the SEC for most of the season before Texas handed them their second loss in three meetings during the conference title game. Still, their resume is formidable: 12-3 against Quad 1 opponents, a top-five offense (fourth nationally), and a top-10 defense (seventh).
Depth is South Carolina’s superpower. Five players earned All-SEC recognition: Joyce Edwards, Raven Johnson, Tessa Johnson, Ta’Niya Latson, and Madina Okot. And on the sideline, they have three-time national champion head coach Dawn Staley, who has been in this position more times than anyone not named Geno Auriemma.
Texas has the head-to-head edge this season, but the Gamecocks remain a nightmare matchup for anyone.
The case for South Carolina: Championship pedigree, elite two-way numbers, and a roster that goes nine deep.
4. LSU Tigers (29-4)
Rounding out the SEC’s formidable quartet is Kim Mulkey’s LSU squad, which brings its own championship pedigree to the table.
The Tigers finished fourth in the SEC regular season (12-4) and fell to South Carolina in the tournament semifinals. But their underlying numbers are impressive: third in the nation in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating. When LSU is clicking, they can score with anyone.
The concern is their track record against top competition. LSU went 1-4 against Texas, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt this season—not the kind of resume that inspires confidence in a potential matchup with UConn. Their 8-5 record against Quad 1 opponents, while solid, doesn’t match the elite company above them.
Still, Mulkey has won championships before, and in a single-elimination tournament, experience matters.
The case for LSU: Elite analytics on both ends and a coach who knows how to win in March.
The Bottom Line
UConn is the favorite. They’re undefeated, they’re experienced, and they’re led by the winningest coach in women’s basketball history. But the gap between the Huskies and the field is narrower than their perfect record suggests.
UCLA has the resume. Texas has the momentum. South Carolina has the depth. And LSU has the coach.
In a single-elimination tournament, that’s enough to believe that March Madness lives up to its name.
