ISLAMABAD – When the news of the evacuation of 22 Iranian crew members of a vessel seized by the US Navy to Pakistan emerged on Monday, it signified the effectiveness of mediation efforts by Islamabad. The development was seen as a significant confidence-building measure and a precursor to other potential positive outcomes.
However, within hours of what could be a defining phase in the diplomatic efforts, US President Donald Trump announced “Project Freedom” to help stranded ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz with the backing of the US Navy. The announcement sparked an immediate reaction from Iran, which termed the move a violation of the ceasefire. Tehran then claimed to have hit a US naval ship with missiles, but CENTCOM denied the incident, instead claiming that under “Project Freedom,” two US-flagged vessels had successfully sailed through the strait.
A Region on the Brink
Amid this, the UAE came under purported missile strikes from Iran. Plumes of smoke rising from Fujairah, an energy strategic hub, sent shockwaves across the region. Alarm bells rang that a renewed war was around the corner. The hard-earned ceasefire and the progress made through backchannel talks were about to go down the drain.
While the world prepared for the worst, one country refused to lose hope.
Pakistan’s Midnight Diplomacy
Pakistani mediators burnt the proverbial midnight oil to ensure that diplomacy did not falter. Islamabad stepped up its engagement not only with the principal parties involved in the conflict—the United States and Iran—but also with other stakeholders that could sway the situation.
As the world waited with bated breath, Pakistan’s diplomacy went into overdrive to prevent an escalation. Pakistan, while treading cautiously throughout the conflict, minced no words when the UAE came under attack. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif condemned the attacks and urged all sides to show restraint and abide by the ceasefire.
Iran Distances Itself
Interestingly, Iran distanced itself from the UAE strikes, although initially Iranian state media had owned the attacks. This was perhaps due to the backlash Iran faced after the strikes, as the timing coincided with talks making progress behind the scenes. Tehran’s retreat suggested that diplomatic pressure was having an effect.
Regional Coordination
Meanwhile, Pakistan reached out to other regional players, particularly Saudi Arabia, to find common ground that could prevent the inevitable. Islamabad, along with Riyadh, persuaded the Trump administration to reconsider “Project Freedom.” The challenge, though, was whether President Trump could be convinced.
But as has happened throughout this conflict, Pakistan once again sprang a surprise when President Trump agreed to pause the operation in the Strait of Hormuz at the request of Pakistan and other countries.
“This was certainly a remarkable achievement of Pakistan,” said a diplomatic source whose own country is also part of the diplomatic push.
Acknowledging Key Partners
Prime Minister Shehbaz thanked Trump for the gesture and at the same time acknowledged the role of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in supporting Pakistan’s mediation efforts. The coordination between Islamabad and Riyadh proved crucial in convincing Washington to step back from the brink.
A One-Page MoU in the Works?
Following Trump’s announcement, US media reports suggested that Washington and Islamabad were inching closer to a “one-page” memorandum of understanding to end the war permanently. Such an MoU would declare an end to the war and set a framework for more detailed negotiations on the strait, Iran’s nuclear programme, and sanctions.
Pakistan remains tight-lipped as part of its deliberate approach aimed at not revealing details of intricate secret talks. But a diplomatic source said that a lot more has happened—and is happening—behind closed doors. The outcome of those efforts would begin to come to the surface soon.
Cautious Optimism
Nevertheless, observers have cautioned against high expectations, as things could take a turn for the worse at the last minute. The history of US-Iran relations is littered with near-agreements that collapsed at the final hurdle. Yet, Pakistan is pushing for the process to reach its logical end.
“Pakistan has managed to pull things from the brink, at least for now,” remarked a source.
Analysis: A Diplomatic Lifeline
Pakistan’s ability to keep the ceasefire alive—despite the launch of “Project Freedom,” Iranian claims of hitting a US ship, and attacks on the UAE—is a testament to the credibility Islamabad has built as a mediator.
The sequence of events could have easily led to a resumption of full-scale war. Instead, Pakistan’s backchannel diplomacy, combined with coordination with Saudi Arabia, persuaded Trump to pause the operation.
The evacuation of Iranian crew members to Pakistan was a confidence-building measure. The pause in “Project Freedom” was another. The challenge now is to convert these CBMs into a lasting agreement.
The reported one-page MoU would be a framework, not a detailed treaty. But frameworks can lead to treaties. The 30-day negotiating period would give both sides space to work out the specifics.
As the world watches, Pakistan continues to play the role of honest broker. The ceasefire is alive—but it remains fragile.
