ISLAMABAD – Pakistan is set to host what could be the decisive round of talks between Iran and the US, as a series of critical confidence-building measures by both sides on Friday revived hopes for a landmark agreement, diplomatic sources said. They said delegations from Tehran and Washington agreed in principle to travel to Islamabad for the next round, very soon.
The move follows an intense phase of behind-the-scenes diplomacy led by Pakistan after the initial round of talks failed to produce a breakthrough. Sources described the upcoming engagement as “crucial,” with momentum restored after what they termed as “unprecedented diplomatic efforts” by Islamabad to prevent the process from collapsing.
Overcoming Skepticism
Pakistan’s role as a mediator was initially met with scepticism, even within policy circles at home. Questions were raised about whether Islamabad possessed the leverage and credibility to bridge the deep mistrust between Iran and the United States, and more importantly, to avert a potential military escalation. However, instead of public grandstanding, Pakistan quietly pursued a calibrated strategy of engagement with both sides.
Ceasefire and Face-to-Face Talks
Against the odds, Islamabad first managed to secure a two-week ceasefire, creating the space necessary for diplomacy to take root. This was followed by a rare face-to-face meeting between Iranian and US officials in Islamabad, a significant milestone, even though it failed to resolve key differences.
The Real Breakthrough
Diplomatic insiders say the real breakthrough came afterwards. With the peace process hanging in the balance and Tehran deeply distrustful of Washington’s intentions, Pakistan escalated its efforts. In a high-stakes move, Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir travelled to Tehran to engage directly with the Iranian leadership. The visit, described by officials as “consequential,” proved pivotal in removing key bottlenecks that had stalled progress.
Confidence-Building Measures
The outcome was swift. A ceasefire in Lebanon was announced, while Iran took the reciprocal step of reopening the Strait of Hormuz — developments widely seen as essential confidence-building measures to sustain dialogue.
Why Pakistan Succeeded
Analysts believe Pakistan’s effectiveness as a mediator stems from a combination of strategic factors. While Islamabad maintains close ties with Tehran and has also cultivated a working relationship with the Trump administration, observers argue that its influence goes beyond traditional diplomacy.
Pakistan’s status as a nuclear power, coupled with its strong military and deep understanding of regional security dynamics, gave it unique leverage. Unlike conventional mediators such as Oman or Qatar, Pakistan was able to factor in the broader geostrategic environment, including nuclear considerations, proxy conflicts, and its defence ties with key regional players such as Saudi Arabia.
Strategic Messaging
Using these levers, Islamabad conveyed a clear message to Tehran that the current window for a deal represented a strategic opportunity — one that might not remain open indefinitely. At the same time, Pakistan engaged Washington at the highest levels, urging restraint and emphasising the need to prevent any potential spoilers from derailing the process.
Cautious Optimism
Despite the progress, officials caution against premature optimism. Ever since US President Donald Trump signalled his willingness to travel to Islamabad for the signing of a potential agreement, a wave of optimism has gripped sections of the media. However, diplomats stress that the negotiations remain complex and far from concluded.
“A deal is only done when it is done,” said a source. While there is broad agreement on several issues, negotiations on more contentious points are still ongoing. The process involves detailed, step-by-step engagement, requiring patience, precision, and sustained trust-building between parties with decades of hostility.
Officials also warn of persistent risks, including domestic political pressures in both countries and the possibility of external spoilers attempting to undermine progress.
Analysis: A Diplomatic Masterclass
Pakistan’s mediation between the US and Iran has been a diplomatic masterclass. From initial scepticism to securing a ceasefire, hosting direct talks, and now reviving the process after a near-collapse, Islamabad has demonstrated strategic patience and influence.
The use of backchannels, high-level military diplomacy, and a calibrated mix of pressure and persuasion has paid off. The confidence-building measures — a ceasefire in Lebanon and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — have created the conditions for a potential deal.
But as officials caution, a deal is only done when it is done. The next round of talks in Islamabad will be decisive. If successful, Pakistan will have achieved a historic diplomatic breakthrough.
