As the world prepares for the formal signing of a preliminary peace agreement between the United States and Iran this Friday, a critical question lingers: has President Donald Trump achieved the ambitious objectives he laid out when he launched airstrikes against Iran on February 28?
The answer, like the conflict itself, is deeply nuanced. While the US military has inflicted significant damage on Iran’s conventional and missile capabilities, several of Trump’s most ambitious war goals—including regime change and the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program—remain unfulfilled.
The Missile and Drone Campaign: A Partial Victory
Before the war, Iran held the largest ballistic missile stockpile in the Middle East, with an estimated 2,500 to 6,000 missiles of varying types, some capable of reaching Israel. Iran was also a major manufacturer of long-range drones, including the Shahed models used by Russia in Ukraine.
Roughly one month into the conflict, US sources told Reuters that one-third of that arsenal was destroyed, with another third likely damaged or buried. Admiral Brad Cooper told Congress on May 14 that Iran’s ability to build and stockpile missiles and long-range drones had been set back by years. He reported that more than 1,500 missiles and 6,000 drones had been intercepted by the US and its allies.
However, Iran has not been completely disarmed. The country still launched missile salvos at Kuwait, Bahrain, and Israel as recently as June 6 and 7, though those attacks reportedly caused no significant damage.
Conventional Military: Significant Degradation
The US military has achieved substantial success in degrading Iran’s conventional military capabilities. Admiral Cooper told Congress that US forces had destroyed 161 Iranian naval ships and knocked out 82% of its air defense systems. The Iranian air force, which once flew up to 100 sorties daily, now does not fly any missions at all.
Yet despite these impressive statistics, Iran was still able to effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz through the duration of the conflict, bottling up merchant ships transporting one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supply using speedboats, mines, drones, and missile boats.
The Nuclear Programme: An Unfinished Challenge
Trump has repeatedly stated that his primary goal is preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. On this front, the war has produced the least tangible results.
US intelligence last month estimated that Iran would need less than a year to produce a nuclear weapon—the same timeline it laid out following the June 2025 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The war has not significantly changed Iran’s nuclear capability.
The nuclear issue will be central to negotiations once the framework deal is formally signed this Friday. Trump has insisted that Iran’s enriched uranium must be removed from the country, while Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has reportedly refused to send it abroad. This remains a fundamental sticking point.
Proxies: Weakened but Not Eliminated
Trump stated on March 2 that Iran could not be allowed to continue arming and funding proxy groups in Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen. While Iran has shown no willingness to halt its support, US military and independent assessments indicate that the proxy network is significantly less effective than before.
Israel killed many of Hamas’s top leaders following the October 7, 2023, attacks and decimated Hezbollah’s leadership in Lebanon. Iran also lost an important conduit for resupplying Hezbollah with the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s rule in Syria. Hefty sanctions have further undercut Iran’s ability to fund these groups.
Regime Change: The Unfulfilled Promise
Perhaps Trump’s most ambitious objective was regime change. He encouraged Iranian protesters to overthrow their rulers, declaring that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death on February 28 represented their “single greatest chance” to seize the government.
Though the war failed to dislodge Iran’s style of government, Trump has claimed victory by pointing to the succession of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by his son, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. Trump characterized the new leadership as “new, and more reasonable” on March 29—a characterization that remains highly contested.
Strategic Assessment: Mixed Results
The conflict has yielded a mixed strategic picture. On one hand, the US has severely degraded Iran’s military capabilities, destroyed much of its missile arsenal, and crippled its air force and navy. Iran’s proxy network has been significantly weakened, and the regime has been forced to the negotiating table.
On the other hand, Iran still possesses the ability to threaten regional shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Its nuclear program remains intact with the same timeline for weaponization as before the war. And perhaps most importantly, the regime Trump sought to overthrow remains firmly in power.
A more nuanced assessment suggests the conflict has successfully “reset” the strategic balance in the region without achieving the decisive outcome Trump initially sought. The upcoming peace agreement will formalize this new status quo, with Iran’s nuclear program and regional influence likely to be the subjects of continued negotiation rather than outright capitulation.
