Washington/Tehran – The Middle East war sent conflicting signals on Monday, as President Donald Trump predicted the conflict could be over “pretty much” soon, even as the Iranian people staged massive shows of loyalty to new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, signaling Tehran is far from ready to back down.
The dueling narratives sent global markets on a rollercoaster ride, with oil prices surging before dipping after Trump’s comments and reports of a possible easing of sanctions on Russian energy.
‘I Think the War is Very Complete’
Speaking to NBC News, Trump stated that Iran’s leaders made a “big mistake” by elevating Mojtaba Khamenei, whom he has previously declared “unacceptable.” However, he predicted the war could end sooner than his initial four-to-five-week timeline.
“I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” he told CBS News.
Iran’s Show of Strength
On the streets of Tehran and Isfahan, a different picture emerged. Iranian state media showed large crowds waving flags and holding portraits of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his son, the new leader.
In Isfahan’s historic Imam Square, loyalists chanted “God is the Greatest” as the sound of apparent airstrikes echoed in the distance. The political establishment has rapidly consolidated behind Mojtaba, whose wife, son, and mother were also killed in the initial US-Israeli air onslaught.
“We will obey the commander-in-chief until the last drop of our blood,” a defence council statement declared.
Public opinion appears divided. While some, like university student Zahra Mirbagheri, hailed the choice as a “slap in the face to our enemies,” others expressed fear and resignation. “The Guards and the system are still powerful… We, the people, have nothing,” said Babak, a 34-year-old businessman from Arak.
Oil Markets on Edge
The war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, choking off a fifth of global oil and LNG supplies. Brent crude futures jumped about 7% to settle at their highest price since 2022, after soaring by as much as 29% during the session.
However, prices fell in post-settlement trade amid reports that the Trump administration is considering easing sanctions on Russian oil to tame prices—a move that could complicate efforts to punish Moscow for its war in Ukraine.
Regional Fallout Intensifies
- Turkey: NATO air defences shot down a second ballistic missile fired from Iran that entered Turkish airspace.
- Beirut: Israel launched new strikes on the Lebanese capital, extending its campaign against Hezbollah.
- Civilian Toll: Iran’s UN ambassador reports at least 1,332 civilians killed; Lebanon reports over 400 dead and nearly 700,000 displaced.
- Israel: A man was killed by shrapnel near Tel Aviv airport, raising Israel’s death toll from Iranian strikes to 11.
In Tehran, thick black smoke choked the city after an oil refinery was hit, with the WHO warning of risks to food, water, and air.
